Worldwide current wind info for sailors

Dennis Pogson · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 115

This is a great site!
http://www.passageweather.com/

Dennis.

Archived from group: uk>rec>sailing

Quilljar · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 33

I agree, never seen a better!

--
Yrs Quilly (Winchester UK)

Tony of Judicious · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 14

Quilljar wrote:

> I agree, never seen a better!
>

Me to, bookmarked.

Forecasts up to 180 hrs (7 1/2 days) ahead.

Chris · Joined: 06 Nov 2007 Posts: 46

"Tony of Judicious" wrote in
message $9l6$1@aioe.org...
> Quilljar wrote:
>
> > I agree, never seen a better!
> >
>
> Me to, bookmarked.
>
> Forecasts up to 180 hrs (7 1/2 days) ahead.
>

I agree excellent thank you
Chris

user · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 18

Very, very good site.
BTW I suppose you already know also excellent German site:
www.dwd.de/de/WundK/W_aktuell/Seewetter/index.htm
and Greek site:
www.poseidon.ncmr.gr/weather_forecast.html
which seems to be slightly more detailed when sailing Greek waters.
JaC

-----

> I agree excellent thank you

Norman · Joined: 22 Jan 2008 Posts: 5

Dennis Pogson wrote:

> This is a great site!
> http://www.passageweather.com/
>
>
> Dennis.

Very good presentation but always bear in mind that each issue is only
one run of one model. It shows only one solution out of a whole range
of possible solutions. Not to be relied on, on its own, beyond T+48 at
best.

You'll find that beyond T+48 the story often changes significantly from
one issue to the next.

This material is raw model output and not really intended for supply to
end-users. It's potentially dangerous because it looks so factual but,
in reality, the forecasts are often very wide of the mark. It would be
very unwise to use this material, on its own, for deciding whether or
not to head off on a passage from, say, Plymouth to Vigo.

Norman
(Chartered Meteorologist)

Dennis Pogson · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 115

Norman wrote:
> Dennis Pogson wrote:
>
>> This is a great site!
>> http://www.passageweather.com/
>>
>>
>> Dennis.
>
> Very good presentation but always bear in mind that each issue is only
> one run of one model. It shows only one solution out of a whole range
> of possible solutions. Not to be relied on, on its own, beyond T+48 at
> best.
>
> You'll find that beyond T+48 the story often changes significantly
> from one issue to the next.
>
> This material is raw model output and not really intended for supply
> to end-users. It's potentially dangerous because it looks so factual
> but, in reality, the forecasts are often very wide of the mark. It
> would be very unwise to use this material, on its own, for deciding
> whether or not to head off on a passage from, say, Plymouth to Vigo.
>
> Norman
> (Chartered Meteorologist)

That assumes that there are other more reliable ways of planning the timing
of a passage from say, Plymouth to Vigo.

Or is it all in the lap of the Gods?

Dennis.

Norman · Joined: 22 Jan 2008 Posts: 5

Dennis Pogson wrote:

> Norman wrote:
> > Dennis Pogson wrote:
> >
> >> This is a great site!
> >> http://www.passageweather.com/
> > >
> > >
> >> Dennis.
> >
> > Very good presentation but always bear in mind that each issue is
> > only one run of one model. It shows only one solution out of a
> > whole range of possible solutions. Not to be relied on, on its own,
> > beyond T+48 at best.
> >
> > You'll find that beyond T+48 the story often changes significantly
> > from one issue to the next.
> >
> > This material is raw model output and not really intended for supply
> > to end-users. It's potentially dangerous because it looks so factual
> > but, in reality, the forecasts are often very wide of the mark. It
> > would be very unwise to use this material, on its own, for deciding
> > whether or not to head off on a passage from, say, Plymouth to Vigo.
> >
> > Norman
> > (Chartered Meteorologist)
>
> That assumes that there are other more reliable ways of planning the
> timing of a passage from say, Plymouth to Vigo.
>
> Or is it all in the lap of the Gods?
>
> Dennis.

For a DIY job look at several successive runs from one model. If they
are consistently telling the same story that gives a degree of
confidence. If successive runs are telling different stories any one
run must be considered likely to be unreliable. The other way is to
look at the predictions from several different models (these can often
be found if you dig around enough) based on the same initialisation
time. If all models are telling roughly the same story that also gives
a degree of confidence. If the models are telling divergent stories
then any one model may prove to be very inaccurate.

Never, never rely solely on the output of one run of one model.
Numerical weather prediction isn't reliable enough for that to be a
safe approach.

Norman

toad · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 199

On 11 Feb, 20:30, "Norman" consultancy.com> wrote:

Thanks Norman.

Can you recommend a good & free WAP weather forecast page?

Norman · Joined: 22 Jan 2008 Posts: 5

toad wrote:

> On 11 Feb, 20:30, "Norman" > consultancy.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> Thanks Norman.
>
> Can you recommend a good & free WAP weather forecast page?

Sorry, I've never investigated that.

--
Norman

Steve Firth · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 22

toad wrote:

> Can you recommend a good & free WAP weather forecast page?

AccuWeather.com

Dennis Pogson · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 115

Steve Firth wrote:
> toad wrote:
>
>> Can you recommend a good & free WAP weather forecast page?
>
> AccuWeather.com

Ugrib?

DNP

Dennis Pogson · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 115

Norman wrote:
> Dennis Pogson wrote:
>
>> Norman wrote:
>>> Dennis Pogson wrote:
>>>
>>>> This is a great site!
>>>> http://www.passageweather.com/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Dennis.
>>>
>>> Very good presentation but always bear in mind that each issue is
>>> only one run of one model. It shows only one solution out of a
>>> whole range of possible solutions. Not to be relied on, on its own,
>>> beyond T+48 at best.
>>>
>>> You'll find that beyond T+48 the story often changes significantly
>>> from one issue to the next.
>>>
>>> This material is raw model output and not really intended for supply
>>> to end-users. It's potentially dangerous because it looks so factual
>>> but, in reality, the forecasts are often very wide of the mark. It
>>> would be very unwise to use this material, on its own, for deciding
>>> whether or not to head off on a passage from, say, Plymouth to Vigo.
>>>
>>> Norman
>>> (Chartered Meteorologist)
>>
>> That assumes that there are other more reliable ways of planning the
>> timing of a passage from say, Plymouth to Vigo.
>>
>> Or is it all in the lap of the Gods?
>>
>> Dennis.
>
> For a DIY job look at several successive runs from one model. If they
> are consistently telling the same story that gives a degree of
> confidence. If successive runs are telling different stories any one
> run must be considered likely to be unreliable. The other way is to
> look at the predictions from several different models (these can often
> be found if you dig around enough) based on the same initialisation
> time. If all models are telling roughly the same story that also gives
> a degree of confidence. If the models are telling divergent stories
> then any one model may prove to be very inaccurate.
>
> Never, never rely solely on the output of one run of one model.
> Numerical weather prediction isn't reliable enough for that to be a
> safe approach.
>
> Norman

Most sailors contemplating a trip of more than a few hours are looking for
re-assurance, rather than a precise and accurate forecast of what the
weather/wind is likely to be at any exact moment on the journey.

If 2 or more forecasts from different sources show that the likelihood of
gales is absent, and the wind is not steadfastly on the nose, then they will
probably risk starting the voyage.

I think the memory of poor old Michael Fish's gaff re the Great Storm of
1987 has hardened sailors and others to the fact that weather forecasting
can be less precise than many would have us believe, and your point is well
taken.

Dennis

LeeShore · Joined: 17 Aug 2007 Posts: 13

On 11 Feb, 12:06, "Dennis Pogson"
wrote:
> Norman wrote:
> > Dennis Pogson wrote:
>
> >> This is a great site!
> >>http://www.passageweather.com/
>
> >> Dennis.
>
> > Very good presentation but always bear in mind that each issue is only
> > one run of one model. It shows only one solution out of a whole range
> > of possible solutions. Not to be relied on, on its own, beyond T+48 at
> > best.
>
> > You'll find that beyond T+48 the story often changes significantly
> > from one issue to the next.
>
> > This material is raw model output and not really intended for supply
> > to end-users. It's potentially dangerous because it looks so factual
> > but, in reality, the forecasts are often very wide of the mark. It
> > would be very unwise to use this material, on its own, for deciding
> > whether or not to head off on a passage from, say, Plymouth to Vigo.
>
> > Norman
> > (Chartered Meteorologist)
>
> That assumes that there are other more reliable ways of planning the timing
> of a passage from say, Plymouth to Vigo.
>
> Or is it all in the lap of the Gods?
>
> Dennis.

Of course pilot charts are useful as they can tell you historically
what has occurred in a certain month. Personally I have found that
every year is unique and that they are only a guide to where the worst
bits are. They can be downloaded free from here:
http://www.meteo-marine.com/meteo_marine/pilot_charts.htm
The actual charts are in English from the NOA, and teh link works as
long as you can tell the month of Avr from Aou.

jp · Joined: 30 Jan 2008 Posts: 2

On 12 Feb, 09:46, "Dennis Pogson"
wrote:
> Norman wrote:
> > Dennis Pogson wrote:
>
> >> Norman wrote:
> >>> Dennis Pogson wrote:
>
> >>>> This is a great site!
> >>>>http://www.passageweather.com/
>
> >>>> Dennis.
>
> >>> Very good presentation but always bear in mind that each issue is
> >>> only one run of one model. It shows only one solution out of a
> >>> whole range of possible solutions. Not to be relied on, on its own,
> >>> beyond T+48 at best.
>
> >>> You'll find that beyond T+48 the story often changes significantly
> >>> from one issue to the next.
>
> >>> This material is raw model output and not really intended for supply
> >>> to end-users. It's potentially dangerous because it looks so factual
> >>> but, in reality, the forecasts are often very wide of the mark. It
> >>> would be very unwise to use this material, on its own, for deciding
> >>> whether or not to head off on a passage from, say, Plymouth to Vigo.
>
> >>> Norman
> >>> (Chartered Meteorologist)
>
> >> That assumes that there are other more reliable ways of planning the
> >> timing of a passage from say, Plymouth to Vigo.
>
> >> Or is it all in the lap of the Gods?
>
> >> Dennis.
>
> > For a DIY job look at several successive runs from one model. If they
> > are consistently telling the same story that gives a degree of
> > confidence. If successive runs are telling different stories any one
> > run must be considered likely to be unreliable. The other way is to
> > look at the predictions from several different models (these can often
> > be found if you dig around enough) based on the same initialisation
> > time. If all models are telling roughly the same story that also gives
> > a degree of confidence. If the models are telling divergent stories
> > then any one model may prove to be very inaccurate.
>
> > Never, never rely solely on the output of one run of one model.
> > Numerical weather prediction isn't reliable enough for that to be a
> > safe approach.
>
> > Norman
>
> Most sailors contemplating a trip of more than a few hours are looking for
> re-assurance, rather than a precise and accurate forecast of what the
> weather/wind is likely to be at any exact moment on the journey.
>
> If 2 or more forecasts from different sources show that the likelihood of
> gales is absent, and the wind is not steadfastly on the nose, then they will
> probably risk starting the voyage.
>
> I think the memory of poor old Michael Fish's gaff re the Great Storm of
> 1987 has hardened sailors and others to the fact that weather forecasting
> can be less precise than many would have us believe, and your point is well
> taken.
>
> Dennis

All in all (in that you should always seek confirmation from more than
one source) passageweather seems a real gem.
Thanks very much

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